Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on November 14?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 94¢ · $156 held · ends Nov 14

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$156.02

Combined PnL

$8.89

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 93.6¢

+6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$113.33

Total Shares121

Combined PnL+$2.82

Yes5 traders

Total Value$42.68

Total Shares314

Combined PnL+$6.07

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$25.25	$24.06	-$1.19	39% 3599-5657 (9256)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.7¢	$14.97	$22.51	+$7.55	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$22.55	$21.55	-$1	50% 697-689 (1386)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$19.3	$20.68	+$1.38	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 80.3¢	$16.06	$18.48	+$2.42	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.3¢	$20.08	$18.18	-$1.9	40% 620-939 (1559)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 83.4¢	$8.34	$9.24	+$0.9	33% 220-451 (671)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$8.38	$8.06	-$0.32	51% 742-710 (1452)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$5.83	$6.65	+$0.82	72% 823-323 (1146)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$4.8	$4.61	-$0.18	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.8¢	$1.02	$0.96	-$0.06	58% 699-503 (1202)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.89	$0.8	+$0.52	31% 146-327 (473)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$0.66	$0.23	-$0.05	65% 4289-2310 (6599)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$25.25

Value

$24.06

PnL

-$1.19

Record

39%

3599-5657 (9256)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.97

Value

$22.51

PnL

+$7.55

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$22.55

Value

$21.55

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$19.3

Value

$20.68

PnL

+$1.38

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16.06

Value

$18.48

PnL

+$2.42

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.08

Value

$18.18

PnL

-$1.9

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$8.34

Value

$9.24

PnL

+$0.9

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$8.38

Value

$8.06

PnL

-$0.32

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$5.83

Value

$6.65

PnL

+$0.82

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.61

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.8

PnL

+$0.52

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.05

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.9%

93.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.