Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on November 5?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 100¢ · $832 held · ended Nov 5

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$831.51

Combined PnL

$615.79

Smart Money Entry

38.9¢ → 99.7¢

+156% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$824.96

Total Shares898

Combined PnL+$476.47

No3 traders

Total Value$6.55

Total Shares152

Combined PnL+$139.32

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 38.6¢	$326.99	$778.07	+$451.08	39% 835-1312 (2147)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$8	$18.36	+$10.36	19% 2850-12163 (15013)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$19.49	$10.46	-$5.16	58% 21138-15369 (36507)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$54.81	$9.35	+$19.81	73% 13760-5199 (18959)
BI Bilberry<$100	Yesavg 44.2¢	$4.2	$8.71	+$0.38	53% 4075-3600 (7675)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$5.96	$5.78	-$0.18	54% 10543-9121 (19664)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 8.9¢	$31.59	$0.41	+$157.6	35% 1125-2074 (3199)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 40.8¢	$18.47	$0.36	-$18.1	53% 23469-20698 (44167)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$326.99

Value

$778.07

PnL

+$451.08

Record

39%

835-1312 (2147)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$18.36

PnL

+$10.36

Record

19%

2850-12163 (15013)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.49

Value

$10.46

PnL

-$5.16

Record

58%

21138-15369 (36507)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.81

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$19.81

Record

73%

13760-5199 (18959)

Bilberry<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.2

Value

$8.71

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

4075-3600 (7675)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$5.96

Value

$5.78

PnL

-$0.18

Record

54%

10543-9121 (19664)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$31.59

Value

$0.41

PnL

+$157.6

Record

35%

1125-2074 (3199)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$18.47

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$18.1

Record

53%

23469-20698 (44167)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.