Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on November 4?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 95¢ · $517 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$516.7
$169.51
62.8¢ → 94.5¢
+51% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 56.2¢ | $158.68 | $265.29 | +$106.62 | 49% 7752-8120 (15872) |
 balthazar | Noavg 52.2¢ | $78.3 | $140.99 | +$62.69 | 55% 26583-22175 (48758) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $79.09 | $78.11 | -$0.97 | 79% 10892-2961 (13853) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $27.28 | $13.23 | +$0.35 | 57% 17526-13092 (30618) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $11.8 | $12.97 | +$1.17 | 49% 740-760 (1500) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $6 | $6 | +$0 | 20% 2356-9209 (11565) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $0.45 | $0.1 | -$0.35 | 40% 5221-7896 (13117) |
Invested
$158.68
Value
$265.29
PnL
+$106.62
Record
49%
7752-8120 (15872)
balthazarInvested
$78.3
Value
$140.99
PnL
+$62.69
Record
55%
26583-22175 (48758)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$79.09
Value
$78.11
PnL
-$0.97
Record
79%
10892-2961 (13853)
Invested
$27.28
Value
$13.23
PnL
+$0.35
Record
57%
17526-13092 (30618)
Invested
$11.8
Value
$12.97
PnL
+$1.17
Record
49%
740-760 (1500)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$6
Value
$6
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
2356-9209 (11565)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$0.35
Record
40%
5221-7896 (13117)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.