Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on November 4?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 52¢ · $717 held · ends Nov 4

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$717.19

Combined PnL

$233.32

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 51.5¢

+11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$518.59

Total Shares867

Combined PnL+$37.62

No4 traders

Total Value$198.6

Total Shares430

Combined PnL+$195.7

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 44¢	$282.38	$353.81	+$28.88	44% 754-963 (1717)
MI mildwindow27CTR	Noavg 10.3¢	$49.8	$176.12	+$195.39	47% 8058-9227 (17285)
24 241532532432	Yesavg 54¢	$120.44	$122.65	+$2.21	58% 2445-1789 (4234)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$18.66	$25.66	+$3.5	48% 2103-2279 (4382)
balthazar<$100	Yesavg 49.7¢	$12.4	$13.73	+$2.51	53% 28631-25560 (54191)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$12.65	$12.97	+$0.32	53% 9602-8425 (18027)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	No	$7.6	$7.6	+$0.04	39% 974-1548 (2522)
AH aHjCz<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$1.9	$2.75	+$0.53	39% 5309-8313 (13622)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$1.95	$1.9	-$0.05	45% 13628-16553 (30181)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$282.38

Value

$353.81

PnL

+$28.88

Record

44%

754-963 (1717)

mildwindow27CTR

Invested

$49.8

Value

$176.12

PnL

+$195.39

Record

47%

8058-9227 (17285)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$120.44

Value

$122.65

PnL

+$2.21

Record

58%

2445-1789 (4234)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.66

Value

$25.66

PnL

+$3.5

Record

48%

2103-2279 (4382)

balthazar<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.4

Value

$13.73

PnL

+$2.51

Record

53%

28631-25560 (54191)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$12.65

Value

$12.97

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

9602-8425 (18027)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$0.04

Record

39%

974-1548 (2522)

aHjCz<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.53

Record

39%

5309-8313 (13622)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.05

Record

45%

13628-16553 (30181)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.