Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on November 1?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 8.3¢ · $139 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$139.44
$9.77
8.5¢ → 8.3¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $83.29 | $75.3 | -$2.86 | 56% 14220-11020 (25240) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $32.34 | $28.33 | +$29.32 | 18% 364-1623 (1987) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.8¢ | $41.3 | $20.61 | -$20.69 | 59% 1919-1349 (3268) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $8.85 | $8.99 | +$0.13 | 53% 6686-5884 (12570) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $2.34 | $6.21 | +$3.87 | 54% 466-390 (856) |
Invested
$83.29
Value
$75.3
PnL
-$2.86
Record
56%
14220-11020 (25240)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$32.34
Value
$28.33
PnL
+$29.32
Record
18%
364-1623 (1987)
Invested
$41.3
Value
$20.61
PnL
-$20.69
Record
59%
1919-1349 (3268)
Invested
$8.85
Value
$8.99
PnL
+$0.13
Record
53%
6686-5884 (12570)
Invested
$2.34
Value
$6.21
PnL
+$3.87
Record
54%
466-390 (856)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.