Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C or higher on November 14?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 100¢ · $226 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$226.04

Combined PnL

-$3.44

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$225.89

Total Shares226

Combined PnL+$0.22

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.15

Total Shares49

Combined PnL-$3.66

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-26 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.7¢	$124.6	$124.63	+$0.03	99% 1281-15 (1296)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$32.02	$32.1	+$0.08	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.97	+$0.09	34% 269-524 (793)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.97	+$0.03	30% 1036-2402 (3438)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.23	$9.22	-$0.01	46% 1095-1300 (2395)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.06	-$1.76	39% 3636-5765 (9401)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0.03	+$0.01	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.02	$0.02	+$0	51% 769-727 (1496)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.02	$0.02	-$0.01	49% 785-823 (1608)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.02	$0.02	-$0	58% 703-515 (1218)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.09	$0	-$1.91	36% 3754-6795 (10549)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$124.6

Value

$124.63

PnL

+$0.03

Record

99%

1281-15 (1296)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$32.02

Value

$32.1

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.09

Record

34%

269-524 (793)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

30%

1036-2402 (3438)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$9.23

Value

$9.22

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

1095-1300 (2395)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.76

Record

39%

3636-5765 (9401)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

785-823 (1608)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

703-515 (1218)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.09

Value

PnL

-$1.91

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-26 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.