Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on November 14?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 14¢ · $147 held · ends Nov 14

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

Total Value

$146.58

Combined PnL

-$68.11

Smart Money Entry

23.2¢ → 14.4¢

-38% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$116

Total Shares125

Combined PnL+$7.63

Yes4 traders

Total Value$30.58

Total Shares463

Combined PnL-$75.73

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$33	$37.2	+$4.2	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$29.82	$29.68	-$0.14	40% 625-948 (1573)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$24.63	$27.9	+$3.27	33% 220-451 (671)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 25.6¢	$101.1	$26.08	-$75.02	55% 1208-982 (2190)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86¢	$8.13	$8.31	+$0.18	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$4.95	$4.89	-$0.06	50% 701-690 (1391)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$4.05	$4.29	+$0.24	72% 829-328 (1157)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.19	$3.77	-$1.42	39% 3605-5672 (9277)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$3.79	$3.73	-$0.07	58% 703-504 (1207)
1D 1DVSBSTDCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.4¢	$1	$0.64	-$0.36	99% 1213-13 (1226)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.5	$0.1	+$1.07	36% 3731-6727 (10458)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$33

Value

$37.2

PnL

+$4.2

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$29.82

Value

$29.68

PnL

-$0.14

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$24.63

Value

$27.9

PnL

+$3.27

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$101.1

Value

$26.08

PnL

-$75.02

Record

55%

1208-982 (2190)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.13

Value

$8.31

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.89

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$0.24

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.19

Value

$3.77

PnL

-$1.42

Record

39%

3605-5672 (9277)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.79

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$0.07

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

1DVSBSTDCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$0.36

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.5

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$1.07

Record

36%

3731-6727 (10458)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.1%

14.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$523.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

623.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.