Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on November 14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $172 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$171.53

Combined PnL

-$7.81

Smart Money Entry

97.8¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$171.5

Total Shares177

Combined PnL-$1.41

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.03

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$6.41

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98¢	$58.79	$58.2	-$0.59	29% 1104-2668 (3772)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$51.41	$51.22	-$0.2	52% 1708-1554 (3262)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$38.86	$38.8	-$0.06	40% 657-989 (1646)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$19.86	$19.4	-$0.46	53% 7043-6177 (13220)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$3.98	$3.88	-$0.1	63% 739-442 (1181)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.11	$0.01	-$2.35	57% 703-521 (1224)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	39% 3638-5769 (9407)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.18	$0.01	-$1.18	27% 691-1911 (2602)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$19.25	$0	-$1.07	36% 3765-6817 (10582)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$58.79

Value

$58.2

PnL

-$0.59

Record

29%

1104-2668 (3772)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$51.41

Value

$51.22

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

1708-1554 (3262)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$38.86

Value

$38.8

PnL

-$0.06

Record

40%

657-989 (1646)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.86

Value

$19.4

PnL

-$0.46

Record

53%

7043-6177 (13220)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.98

Value

$3.88

PnL

-$0.1

Record

63%

739-442 (1181)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.11

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.35

Record

57%

703-521 (1224)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

39%

3638-5769 (9407)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.18

Record

27%

691-1911 (2602)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.25

Value

PnL

-$1.07

Record

36%

3765-6817 (10582)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.