Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on November 14?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $78 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$77.77

Combined PnL

-$20.05

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$77.68

Total Shares78

Combined PnL+$0.1

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.09

Total Shares183

Combined PnL-$20.15

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.99	+$0.05	34% 275-525 (800)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.99	+$0.05	30% 243-579 (822)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$12.49	$12.5	+$0.01	99% 1301-18 (1319)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.21	$5.22	+$0	49% 788-829 (1617)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.27	$0.04	-$7.23	57% 703-522 (1225)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.54	$0.03	-$5.51	29% 3185-7958 (11143)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$21.78	$0.01	-$3.58	39% 3641-5775 (9416)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.18	$0.01	-$1.18	26% 692-1921 (2613)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.74	$0	-$0.74	18% 853-3922 (4775)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.09	$0	-$1.91	36% 3768-6825 (10593)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.05

Record

34%

275-525 (800)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.05

Record

30%

243-579 (822)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$12.49

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1301-18 (1319)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.21

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

788-829 (1617)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.27

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.23

Record

57%

703-522 (1225)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.54

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.51

Record

29%

3185-7958 (11143)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.78

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.58

Record

39%

3641-5775 (9416)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.18

Record

26%

692-1921 (2613)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.74

Value

PnL

-$0.74

Record

18%

853-3922 (4775)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.09

Value

PnL

-$1.91

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.