Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 29?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 56¢ · $147 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$146.91
$2.27
53.8¢ → 55.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 54¢ | $121.23 | $122.35 | +$1.12 | 46% 576-664 (1240) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $13.2 | $13.65 | +$0.45 | 61% 20632-13069 (33701) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $5.46 | $5.46 | -$0 | 28% 280-709 (989) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $2 | $2.73 | +$0.73 | 57% 13017-9926 (22943) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.73 | -$0.02 | 61% 1571-1019 (2590) |
Invested
$121.23
Value
$122.35
PnL
+$1.12
Record
46%
576-664 (1240)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$13.2
Value
$13.65
PnL
+$0.45
Record
61%
20632-13069 (33701)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$5.46
Value
$5.46
PnL
-$0
Record
28%
280-709 (989)
Invested
$2
Value
$2.73
PnL
+$0.73
Record
57%
13017-9926 (22943)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.73
PnL
-$0.02
Record
61%
1571-1019 (2590)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.