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NoYes
balthazarCTR<$100Yes
LucerysCTR<$100YesYesYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on November 9?
Resolved No. 17% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
6
No 50%
Total Value
$190
Combined PnL
-$0.65
Smart Money Signal
No
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$190
Total Shares190
Combined PnL+$0.26
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares10
Combined PnL-$0.91
No — 17%Yes — 83%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $189.76 | $190 | +$0.26 | 97% 59786-1869 (61655) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.91 | 32% 21967-45855 (67822) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 30% 35523-84044 (119567) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18729-24498 (43227) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 47% 47657-54243 (101900) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 22% 3495-12142 (15637) |
1D
1DVSBSTDInvested
$189.76
Value
$190
PnL
+$0.26
Record
97%
59786-1869 (61655)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.91
Record
32%
21967-45855 (67822)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
35523-84044 (119567)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18729-24498 (43227)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
47657-54243 (101900)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
3495-12142 (15637)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x4f5c8bfa...60e212
Slug
highest-temperature-in-taipei-on-november-9-2026-30corhigher