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Yes
balthazarCTR<$100Yes
Lucerys<$100NoYesNo
2B9SCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on November 9?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$0.45
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares5
Combined PnL-$0.45
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 67%No — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.45 | 32% 21967-45855 (67822) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 30% 35523-84044 (119567) |
Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18729-24498 (43227) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 47% 47657-54243 (101900) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 22% 3495-12142 (15637) |
2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 15% 5011-29434 (34445) |
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.45
Record
32%
21967-45855 (67822)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
35523-84044 (119567)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18729-24498 (43227)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
47657-54243 (101900)
LU
luciebot<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
3495-12142 (15637)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
15%
5011-29434 (34445)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x94679491...c69551
Slug
highest-temperature-in-taipei-on-november-9-2026-21c