Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on November 5?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 28¢ · $244 held · ends Nov 5

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

Total Value

$244.3

Combined PnL

-$23.5

Smart Money Entry

24.6¢ → 28.5¢

+16% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$170.61

Total Shares790

Combined PnL-$23.61

No5 traders

Total Value$73.69

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$0.11

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 24.6¢	$781.07	$167.93	-$23.89	41% 799-1129 (1928)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 73¢	$58.71	$59.12	+$0.4	56% 631-505 (1136)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77¢	$4.72	$4.47	-$0.25	54% 10027-8667 (18694)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 74¢	$3.73	$3.68	-$0.05	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.66	$3.66	+$0	40% 2175-3220 (5395)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 73¢	$2.76	$2.76	+$0	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$2.4	$2.68	+$0.28	58% 19455-14308 (33763)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$781.07

Value

$167.93

PnL

-$23.89

Record

41%

799-1129 (1928)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$58.71

Value

$59.12

PnL

+$0.4

Record

56%

631-505 (1136)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.72

Value

$4.47

PnL

-$0.25

Record

54%

10027-8667 (18694)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.73

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$0.05

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.66

Value

$3.66

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

2175-3220 (5395)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$0

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.28

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.