Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on November 4?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 98¢ · $311 held · ends Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$311.15

Combined PnL

$155.42

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 98¢

+82% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$308.86

Total Shares310

Combined PnL+$156.14

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.29

Total Shares82

Combined PnL-$0.71

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel	Noavg 11.3¢	$19.88	$145.12	+$146.07	50% 9499-9511 (19010)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 89.1¢	$38.68	$41.42	+$2.74	53% 9755-8526 (18281)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$83.2	$38.26	-$0.32	79% 11986-3185 (15171)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$34.77	$35.3	+$0.52	47% 1605-1792 (3397)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 67.3¢	$15.19	$22.46	+$7.27	40% 2075-3116 (5191)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$9.62	$9.71	+$0.09	30% 2141-4968 (7109)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$8.15	$8.15	-$0	55% 4345-3527 (7872)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$7.31	$5.15	-$0	38% 978-1567 (2545)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$52.27	$3.29	-$0.23	58% 18775-13813 (32588)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$5.31	$2.29	-$0.71	53% 8015-7117 (15132)

quietparcel

Invested

$19.88

Value

$145.12

PnL

+$146.07

Record

50%

9499-9511 (19010)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$38.68

Value

$41.42

PnL

+$2.74

Record

53%

9755-8526 (18281)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$83.2

Value

$38.26

PnL

-$0.32

Record

79%

11986-3185 (15171)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$34.77

Value

$35.3

PnL

+$0.52

Record

47%

1605-1792 (3397)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$15.19

Value

$22.46

PnL

+$7.27

Record

40%

2075-3116 (5191)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$9.62

Value

$9.71

PnL

+$0.09

Record

30%

2141-4968 (7109)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$8.15

Value

$8.15

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

4345-3527 (7872)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$7.31

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

978-1567 (2545)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$52.27

Value

$3.29

PnL

-$0.23

Record

58%

18775-13813 (32588)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.31

Value

$2.29

PnL

-$0.71

Record

53%

8015-7117 (15132)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.