Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on November 15?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 96¢ · $436 held · ends Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$436.37

Combined PnL

$38.95

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 95.8¢

+15% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$393.54

Total Shares446

Combined PnL+$22.08

Yes4 traders

Total Value$42.83

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$16.87

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$60.74	$68.49	+$7.76	51% 901-849 (1750)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 78¢	$67.87	$63.51	-$4.36	42% 754-1062 (1816)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$55.53	$60.01	+$4.48	47% 852-950 (1802)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 83.6¢	$40.8	$46.88	+$6.08	38% 3759-6065 (9824)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$41.36	$46.73	+$5.37	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 80¢	$31.7	$30.12	-$1.58	53% 7340-6426 (13766)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$7.68	$20.45	+$12.77	68% 89-42 (131)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$59.1	$20.04	+$2.28	43% 5159-6926 (12085)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 84¢	$19.85	$17.25	-$2.6	51% 818-797 (1615)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$14.66	$16.46	+$1.79	52% 865-790 (1655)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 76.1¢	$12.01	$15.11	+$3.1	59% 827-567 (1394)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$12.52	$12.88	+$5.12	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$10.23	$9.29	-$0.94	71% 917-377 (1294)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 67¢	$4.13	$4.5	+$0.37	58% 820-591 (1411)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 83¢	$5.06	$4.45	-$0.61	57% 800-608 (1408)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$0.29	$0.21	-$0.08	49% 877-897 (1774)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$60.74

Value

$68.49

PnL

+$7.76

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$67.87

Value

$63.51

PnL

-$4.36

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$55.53

Value

$60.01

PnL

+$4.48

Record

47%

852-950 (1802)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$40.8

Value

$46.88

PnL

+$6.08

Record

38%

3759-6065 (9824)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$41.36

Value

$46.73

PnL

+$5.37

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$31.7

Value

$30.12

PnL

-$1.58

Record

53%

7340-6426 (13766)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.68

Value

$20.45

PnL

+$12.77

Record

68%

89-42 (131)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$59.1

Value

$20.04

PnL

+$2.28

Record

43%

5159-6926 (12085)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$19.85

Value

$17.25

PnL

-$2.6

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$14.66

Value

$16.46

PnL

+$1.79

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$12.01

Value

$15.11

PnL

+$3.1

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.52

Value

$12.88

PnL

+$5.12

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.23

Value

$9.29

PnL

-$0.94

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.13

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.37

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$0.61

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.08

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.9%

95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.