Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on November 15?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $63 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 67%
$63.38
-$1.94
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 89.7¢ | $35.87 | $39.95 | +$4.08 | 53% 7392-6516 (13908) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Noavg 91.9¢ | $10 | $10.87 | +$0.87 | 37% 308-521 (829) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92.7¢ | $10.54 | $9.85 | -$0.7 | 52% 2195-1999 (4194) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $4.36 | $1.64 | -$2.72 | 42% 760-1068 (1828) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.13 | $0.33 | +$0.2 | 14% 98-587 (685) |
 HaradwaithCTR | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $110.8 | $0.32 | +$3.1 | 29% 266-655 (921) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.63 | $0.2 | -$3.43 | 43% 5181-7002 (12183) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.3¢ | $1.83 | $0.13 | -$1.71 | 40% 47-70 (117) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.73 | $0.1 | -$1.63 | 24% 762-2435 (3197) |
Invested
$35.87
Value
$39.95
PnL
+$4.08
Record
53%
7392-6516 (13908)
Invested
$10
Value
$10.87
PnL
+$0.87
Record
37%
308-521 (829)
Invested
$10.54
Value
$9.85
PnL
-$0.7
Record
52%
2195-1999 (4194)
Invested
$4.36
Value
$1.64
PnL
-$2.72
Record
42%
760-1068 (1828)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.33
PnL
+$0.2
Record
14%
98-587 (685)
HaradwaithCTRInvested
$110.8
Value
$0.32
PnL
+$3.1
Record
29%
266-655 (921)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$3.63
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$3.43
Record
43%
5181-7002 (12183)
Invested
$1.83
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$1.71
Record
40%
47-70 (117)
Invested
$1.73
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$1.63
Record
24%
762-2435 (3197)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.