Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on November 14?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $354 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$353.9

Combined PnL

$2.65

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 99.7¢

+1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$353.69

Total Shares354

Combined PnL+$4.36

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.21

Total Shares71

Combined PnL-$1.71

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 97.1¢	$200.94	$172.71	+$4.58	40% 620-939 (1559)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$36.36	$36.31	-$0.05	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$27.62	$27.72	+$0.1	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$25.31	$25.37	+$0.06	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$24.6	$24.56	-$0.04	50% 697-689 (1386)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$20.26	$20.29	+$0.03	58% 679-500 (1179)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$14.55	$14.52	-$0.03	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$10.01	$10.05	+$0.04	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.04	$9.04	-$0	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$6.33	$6.35	+$0.03	51% 742-710 (1452)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.92	$5.01	+$0.09	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96¢	$2.2	$1.77	-$0.42	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$1.74	$0.21	-$1.53	13% 76-495 (571)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.18	$0	-$0.18	56% 2268-1802 (4070)

241532532432

Invested

$200.94

Value

$172.71

PnL

+$4.58

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$36.36

Value

$36.31

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$27.62

Value

$27.72

PnL

+$0.1

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$25.31

Value

$25.37

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$24.6

Value

$24.56

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$20.26

Value

$20.29

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$14.55

Value

$14.52

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.01

Value

$10.05

PnL

+$0.04

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$9.04

Value

$9.04

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.33

Value

$6.35

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.92

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$0.09

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$0.42

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.74

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$1.53

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

PnL

-$0.18

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.