Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on November 14?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 96¢ · $201 held · ends Nov 14

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$200.92

Combined PnL

-$103.99

Smart Money Entry

95.4¢ → 96.4¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$182.82

Total Shares187

Combined PnL+$7.48

Yes4 traders

Total Value$18.08

Total Shares499

Combined PnL-$111.47

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$39.46	$39.54	+$0.08	58% 679-500 (1179)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$33.1	$33.78	+$0.68	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$24.75	$24.65	-$0.11	50% 697-689 (1386)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 96¢	$20.7	$21.04	+$0.34	51% 782-754 (1536)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88.3¢	$49.4	$19.01	+$5.52	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$13.73	$13.66	-$0.07	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$94.52	$11.82	-$82.7	55% 1088-874 (1962)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97¢	$8.36	$8.41	+$0.05	51% 742-710 (1452)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$11.61	$6.88	+$1.06	72% 823-323 (1146)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98¢	$6.03	$6	-$0.02	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.99	$4.97	-$0.02	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$4.92	$4.88	-$0.04	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.1¢	$9.5	$3.15	-$6.35	13% 76-495 (571)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 15.1¢	$168.07	$2.83	-$21.76	40% 620-939 (1559)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.3¢	$0.93	$0.28	-$0.65	56% 2268-1802 (4070)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$39.46

Value

$39.54

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$33.1

Value

$33.78

PnL

+$0.68

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$24.75

Value

$24.65

PnL

-$0.11

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$20.7

Value

$21.04

PnL

+$0.34

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$49.4

Value

$19.01

PnL

+$5.52

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$13.73

Value

$13.66

PnL

-$0.07

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.52

Value

$11.82

PnL

-$82.7

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$8.36

Value

$8.41

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$11.61

Value

$6.88

PnL

+$1.06

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.03

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.92

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$0.04

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.5

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$6.35

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$168.07

Value

$2.83

PnL

-$21.76

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.65

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.