Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 31?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Oct 31
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Neutral
Yes
1
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$503.36
$29.49
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $333.11 | $350.98 | +$22.04 | 20% 312-1273 (1585) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58¢ | $219.8 | $178.06 | -$41.69 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.1¢ | $109.17 | $172.92 | +$63.73 | |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 42¢ | $103.22 | $152.37 | +$29.49 | 55% 410-333 (743) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.