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Yes
balthazar<$100NoNoNoYes
Istaroth<$100NoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 27?
Resolved No. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$63.21
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares217
Combined PnL-$63.21
No5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 29%No — 71%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.9¢ | $65.05 | — | -$63.21 | 61% 1529-967 (2496) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 78.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20522-12983 (33505) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 77.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1623-1615 (3238) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 561-524 (1085) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6235-5472 (11707) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 84.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 273-593 (866) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14582-26244 (40826) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$65.05
Value
—
PnL
-$63.21
Record
61%
1529-967 (2496)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20522-12983 (33505)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1623-1615 (3238)
0X
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
561-524 (1085)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6235-5472 (11707)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
273-593 (866)
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14582-26244 (40826)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xfed47282...a06235
Slug
highest-temperature-in-shenzhen-on-october-27-2026-30c