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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on November 9?

Resolved No. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

11

No 33%

Total Value

$300

Combined PnL

-$3.82

Smart Money Signal

No

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$300

Total Shares300

Combined PnL+$0.37

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares46

Combined PnL-$4.19

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$299.65	$300	+$0.37	97% 59786-1869 (61655)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0.57	—	-$2.1	22% 657-2370 (3027)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	-$2.09	32% 21967-45855 (67822)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	30% 35523-84044 (119567)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	—	—	+$0	43% 18729-24498 (43227)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	47% 47657-54243 (101900)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	—	—	+$0	29% 3599-8831 (12430)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	—	—	+$0	32% 8615-18480 (27095)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	No	—	—	+$0	43% 5588-7271 (12859)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	22% 3495-12142 (15637)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.8¢	—	—	+$0	30% 2958-6851 (9809)

Invested

$299.65

Value

$300

PnL

+$0.37

Record

97%

59786-1869 (61655)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Invested

$0.57

Value

—

PnL

-$2.1

Record

22%

657-2370 (3027)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$2.09

Record

32%

21967-45855 (67822)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

35523-84044 (119567)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18729-24498 (43227)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

47657-54243 (101900)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

3599-8831 (12430)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

8615-18480 (27095)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

5588-7271 (12859)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

22%

3495-12142 (15637)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2958-6851 (9809)

Smart Money Signal

No

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x91c6f838...2f28f5

Slug

highest-temperature-in-shenzhen-on-november-9-2026-31corhigher

Traders in this Market

1DVSBSTD

No — $300

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179

Yes — $0

xtxpleasecallme

Yes — $0

balthazar

Yes — $0

Lucerys

Yes — $0

qwen300.fund

No — $0

merod

Yes — $0

korda77

Yes — $0

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

No — $0

luciebot

No — $0

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