Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on November 9?
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
No 50%
$107.5
-$6.1
Smart Money Signal
16 of 20 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $87.5 | $87.5 | +$3.86 | 57% 25537-19073 (44610) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $19.51 | $20 | +$0.52 | 97% 59786-1869 (61655) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $9.58 | — | -$9.58 | 43% 5588-7271 (12859) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.91 | 32% 21967-45855 (67822) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 35523-84044 (119567) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | — | — | +$0 | 22% 657-2370 (3027) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18729-24498 (43227) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 2897-6613 (9510) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 47% 47657-54243 (101900) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 66284-66816 (133100) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 6200-7414 (13614) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 6903-8164 (15067) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 29% 3599-8831 (12430) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 8615-18480 (27095) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 69% 16770-7378 (24148) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 22% 3495-12142 (15637) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 14% 9536-61063 (70599) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 9346-9412 (18758) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 2958-6851 (9809) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 6652-7812 (14464) |
Invested
$87.5
Value
$87.5
PnL
+$3.86
Record
57%
25537-19073 (44610)
Invested
$19.51
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.52
Record
97%
59786-1869 (61655)
Invested
$9.58
Value
—
PnL
-$9.58
Record
43%
5588-7271 (12859)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.91
Record
32%
21967-45855 (67822)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
35523-84044 (119567)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
657-2370 (3027)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18729-24498 (43227)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2897-6613 (9510)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
47657-54243 (101900)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
66284-66816 (133100)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
6200-7414 (13614)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
6903-8164 (15067)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
3599-8831 (12430)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
8615-18480 (27095)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
16770-7378 (24148)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
3495-12142 (15637)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
14%
9536-61063 (70599)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
9346-9412 (18758)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2958-6851 (9809)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
6652-7812 (14464)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ghorrock
No — $87.5
1DVSBSTD
No — $20
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
CTRYes — $0
xtxpleasecallme
CTRYes — $0
balthazar
No — $0
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179
No — $0
Lucerys
No — $0
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $0
qwen300.fund
No — $0
cigarettes
No — $0