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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C or below on November 9?

Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

18

No 25%

Total Value

$200

Combined PnL

-$1.66

Smart Money Signal

No

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$200

Total Shares200

Combined PnL+$0.2

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares169

Combined PnL-$1.86

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$199.81	$200	+$0.2	97% 59786-1869 (61655)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.73	—	-$0.73	43% 5588-7271 (12859)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.57	—	-$0.85	22% 657-2370 (3027)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	-$0.28	47% 47657-54243 (101900)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	30% 35523-84044 (119567)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	43% 18729-24498 (43227)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 76¢	—	—	+$0	32% 21967-45855 (67822)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	30% 2897-6613 (9510)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	50% 66284-66816 (133100)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6200-7414 (13614)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6903-8164 (15067)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	29% 3599-8831 (12430)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	—	—	+$0	32% 8615-18480 (27095)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	69% 16770-7378 (24148)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	22% 3495-12142 (15637)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	50% 9346-9412 (18758)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.8¢	—	—	+$0	30% 2958-6851 (9809)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	—	—	+$0	46% 6652-7812 (14464)

Invested

$199.81

Value

$200

PnL

+$0.2

Record

97%

59786-1869 (61655)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.73

Value

—

PnL

-$0.73

Record

43%

5588-7271 (12859)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Invested

$0.57

Value

—

PnL

-$0.85

Record

22%

657-2370 (3027)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$0.28

Record

47%

47657-54243 (101900)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

35523-84044 (119567)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

18729-24498 (43227)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

21967-45855 (67822)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2897-6613 (9510)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

66284-66816 (133100)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6200-7414 (13614)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6903-8164 (15067)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

3599-8831 (12430)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

8615-18480 (27095)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

16770-7378 (24148)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

22%

3495-12142 (15637)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

9346-9412 (18758)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2958-6851 (9809)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

6652-7812 (14464)

Smart Money Signal

No

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x90d9ad57...6d44ce

Slug

highest-temperature-in-shenzhen-on-november-9-2026-21corbelow

Traders in this Market

1DVSBSTD

No — $200

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Yes — $0

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179

Yes — $0

qwen300.fund

Yes — $0

balthazar

Yes — $0

Lucerys

No — $0

xtxpleasecallme

No — $0

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

No — $0

cigarettes

No — $0

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

No — $0

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