Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on November 4?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 83¢ · $563 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$562.8
-$12.76
72.3¢ → 82.5¢
+14% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 71.4¢ | $431.68 | $455.09 | +$23.42 | 42% 779-1075 (1854) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $82.89 | $45.12 | -$37.77 | 53% 3647-3270 (6917) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 87.7¢ | $41.38 | $16.8 | -$0.72 | 79% 11953-3142 (15095) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $14.8 | $16.8 | +$2 | 18% 4199-19790 (23989) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 74.6¢ | $12.08 | $13.6 | +$1.52 | 53% 9606-8430 (18036) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.6¢ | $14.93 | $6.98 | -$1.88 | 58% 18597-13721 (32318) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $4.2 | +$0.18 | 53% 7951-7061 (15012) |
 fildoro<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $4.2 | +$0.5 | 64% 1933-1071 (3004) |
Invested
$431.68
Value
$455.09
PnL
+$23.42
Record
42%
779-1075 (1854)
Invested
$82.89
Value
$45.12
PnL
-$37.77
Record
53%
3647-3270 (6917)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$41.38
Value
$16.8
PnL
-$0.72
Record
79%
11953-3142 (15095)
2B9S<$100Invested
$14.8
Value
$16.8
PnL
+$2
Record
18%
4199-19790 (23989)
Invested
$12.08
Value
$13.6
PnL
+$1.52
Record
53%
9606-8430 (18036)
Invested
$14.93
Value
$6.98
PnL
-$1.88
Record
58%
18597-13721 (32318)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$4.2
PnL
+$0.18
Record
53%
7951-7061 (15012)
fildoro<$100Invested
$3.7
Value
$4.2
PnL
+$0.5
Record
64%
1933-1071 (3004)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.