Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on November 15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $35 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$35.09

Combined PnL

-$18.63

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$34.98

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.1

Total Shares206

Combined PnL-$18.64

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$34.97	$34.98	+$0.02	98% 1504-23 (1527)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.91	$0.03	-$5.88	51% 818-797 (1615)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.19	$0.03	-$5.16	35% 3858-7089 (10947)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	25% 580-1695 (2275)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	38% 3756-6063 (9819)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	43% 5158-6925 (12083)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.64	$0	-$0.63	17% 92-444 (536)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	36% 1595-2778 (4373)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.19	$0	-$0.19	53% 2324-2038 (4362)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$34.97

Value

$34.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.88

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.19

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.16

Record

35%

3858-7089 (10947)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

25%

580-1695 (2275)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

38%

3756-6063 (9819)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

43%

5158-6925 (12083)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

PnL

-$0.63

Record

17%

92-444 (536)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

36%

1595-2778 (4373)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

PnL

-$0.19

Record

53%

2324-2038 (4362)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.