Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on November 15?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 100¢ · $320 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$319.58

Combined PnL

-$14.49

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$318.68

Total Shares319

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.9

Total Shares112

Combined PnL-$14.52

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$302.7	$302.7	+$0	98% 1504-23 (1527)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$15.95	$15.98	+$0.03	53% 7310-6373 (13683)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.55	$0.4	-$4.15	51% 814-794 (1608)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.16	-$1.66	38% 3738-6054 (9792)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.13	-$2.49	26% 580-1693 (2273)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.37	$0.09	-$5.05	35% 3858-7087 (10945)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.64	$0.06	-$0.58	17% 92-443 (535)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0.04	-$0.41	36% 1595-2778 (4373)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.19	$0.02	-$0.18	53% 2324-2038 (4362)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$302.7

Value

$302.7

PnL

+$0

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.95

Value

$15.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

7310-6373 (13683)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$4.15

Record

51%

814-794 (1608)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$1.66

Record

38%

3738-6054 (9792)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$2.49

Record

26%

580-1693 (2273)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.37

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$5.05

Record

35%

3858-7087 (10945)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.58

Record

17%

92-443 (535)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.41

Record

36%

1595-2778 (4373)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

2324-2038 (4362)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.