Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $433 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$432.52

Combined PnL

$4.67

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 99.8¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$432.39

Total Shares433

Combined PnL+$6.46

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.13

Total Shares42

Combined PnL-$1.79

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 97.5¢	$351	$359.64	+$8.64	41% 711-1031 (1742)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$22.35	$22.31	-$0.03	49% 828-860 (1688)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$45.84	$19.95	-$2.36	35% 3807-6929 (10736)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$15.76	$15.98	+$0.22	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$8.39	$8.38	-$0.01	49% 798-831 (1629)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.13	$6.12	-$0.01	58% 767-547 (1314)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.05	$0.08	+$0.03	14% 90-553 (643)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.21	$0.05	-$1.62	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.19	$0.01	-$0.19	54% 2307-1980 (4287)

241532532432

Invested

$351

Value

$359.64

PnL

+$8.64

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$22.35

Value

$22.31

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

828-860 (1688)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$45.84

Value

$19.95

PnL

-$2.36

Record

35%

3807-6929 (10736)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.76

Value

$15.98

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$8.39

Value

$8.38

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

798-831 (1629)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.13

Value

$6.12

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

767-547 (1314)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0.03

Record

14%

90-553 (643)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.21

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.62

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.19

Record

54%

2307-1980 (4287)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.