Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on November 15?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $766 held · ends Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$765.94

Combined PnL

$45.4

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 98¢

+6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$764.18

Total Shares779

Combined PnL+$45.33

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.76

Total Shares98

Combined PnL+$0.07

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 89¢	$333.12	$365.08	+$33.91	55% 2291-1902 (4193)
24 241532532432	Noavg 94.7¢	$291.54	$302.15	+$10.61	40% 660-990 (1650)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$29.46	$29.43	-$0.03	26% 550-1579 (2129)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$25.42	$17.65	-$0.59	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$16.06	$16.05	-$0.01	50% 723-711 (1434)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 89¢	$14.24	$15.7	+$1.46	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$5	$5	-$0	51% 809-769 (1578)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$4.98	$4.98	-$0	57% 704-522 (1226)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$4.91	$4.91	-$0	29% 63-155 (218)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$3.25	$3.25	-$0	58% 726-520 (1246)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.33	$1.49	+$1.16	14% 82-515 (597)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.36	$0.27	-$1.09	39% 3649-5778 (9427)

hello.67

Invested

$333.12

Value

$365.08

PnL

+$33.91

Record

55%

2291-1902 (4193)

241532532432

Invested

$291.54

Value

$302.15

PnL

+$10.61

Record

40%

660-990 (1650)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$29.46

Value

$29.43

PnL

-$0.03

Record

26%

550-1579 (2129)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$25.42

Value

$17.65

PnL

-$0.59

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$16.06

Value

$16.05

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14.24

Value

$15.7

PnL

+$1.46

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

809-769 (1578)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

123987456<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

$4.91

PnL

-$0

Record

29%

63-155 (218)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$1.49

PnL

+$1.16

Record

14%

82-515 (597)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$1.09

Record

39%

3649-5778 (9427)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.