Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on November 15?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 69¢ · $294 held · ends Nov 15

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$294.21

Combined PnL

$1.8

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 69¢

-5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$157.89

Total Shares528

Combined PnL+$12.14

No9 traders

Total Value$136.32

Total Shares203

Combined PnL-$10.34

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$78.04	$90.93	+$12.89	40% 42-63 (105)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 70¢	$69.99	$64.99	-$5	32% 168-365 (533)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.8¢	$66.15	$62.16	-$3.99	40% 660-990 (1650)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 73¢	$21.9	$21.75	-$0.15	26% 550-1579 (2129)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 69¢	$17.87	$11.69	+$1.01	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92¢	$14.72	$11.52	-$3.2	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 69¢	$10.5	$9.89	-$0.61	50% 723-711 (1434)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91¢	$8.83	$6.98	-$1.84	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.36	$4.2	+$2.84	39% 3649-5778 (9427)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 69¢	$4.27	$4.02	-$0.25	57% 704-522 (1226)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.51	$3.31	-$0.2	58% 726-520 (1246)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 68¢	$2.25	$2.15	-$0.1	51% 773-729 (1502)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.19	$0.6	+$0.4	55% 2291-1902 (4193)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.04

Value

$90.93

PnL

+$12.89

Record

40%

42-63 (105)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$69.99

Value

$64.99

PnL

-$5

Record

32%

168-365 (533)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.15

Value

$62.16

PnL

-$3.99

Record

40%

660-990 (1650)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$21.9

Value

$21.75

PnL

-$0.15

Record

26%

550-1579 (2129)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$17.87

Value

$11.69

PnL

+$1.01

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14.72

Value

$11.52

PnL

-$3.2

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.5

Value

$9.89

PnL

-$0.61

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.83

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$1.84

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$2.84

Record

39%

3649-5778 (9427)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.27

Value

$4.02

PnL

-$0.25

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.31

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

55%

2291-1902 (4193)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.