Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on November 15?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 96¢ · $103 held · ends Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$102.5

Combined PnL

-$3.55

Smart Money Entry

97.6¢ → 95.9¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$100.43

Total Shares104

Combined PnL-$1.68

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.07

Total Shares59

Combined PnL-$1.87

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$29.25	$28.91	-$0.34	26% 550-1579 (2129)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$25.25	$17.35	-$0.71	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$15.91	$15.78	-$0.13	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$15.9	$15.44	-$0.46	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$9.87	$9.96	+$0.09	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$8.16	$8.09	-$0.08	49% 789-829 (1618)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$4.95	$4.91	-$0.04	50% 723-711 (1434)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$1.29	$1.05	-$0.24	40% 660-990 (1650)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.7	-$1.12	39% 3649-5778 (9427)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.64	$0.25	-$0.39	17% 88-433 (521)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.19	$0.07	-$0.12	55% 2291-1902 (4193)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$29.25

Value

$28.91

PnL

-$0.34

Record

26%

550-1579 (2129)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$25.25

Value

$17.35

PnL

-$0.71

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$15.91

Value

$15.78

PnL

-$0.13

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.9

Value

$15.44

PnL

-$0.46

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.87

Value

$9.96

PnL

+$0.09

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$8.16

Value

$8.09

PnL

-$0.08

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.91

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.24

Record

40%

660-990 (1650)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$1.12

Record

39%

3649-5778 (9427)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.39

Record

17%

88-433 (521)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.12

Record

55%

2291-1902 (4193)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.