Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on November 15?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 99¢ · $69 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$69.03

Combined PnL

-$2.87

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$68.79

Total Shares70

Combined PnL-$0.46

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares29

Combined PnL-$2.42

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.35	$19.24	-$0.12	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$16.3	$16.14	-$0.16	51% 872-825 (1697)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$14.98	$14.97	-$0.01	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.99	$5.94	-$0.05	60% 796-535 (1331)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.07	$5.02	-$0.05	58% 794-568 (1362)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.05	$5	-$0.05	49% 820-849 (1669)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$2.5	$2.48	-$0.02	99% 1449-21 (1470)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.16	-$1.66	39% 3708-5917 (9625)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.64	$0.06	-$0.58	17% 92-443 (535)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.19	$0.02	-$0.18	54% 2315-2002 (4317)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.35

Value

$19.24

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$16.3

Value

$16.14

PnL

-$0.16

Record

51%

872-825 (1697)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.98

Value

$14.97

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.99

Value

$5.94

PnL

-$0.05

Record

60%

796-535 (1331)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

794-568 (1362)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

820-849 (1669)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

99%

1449-21 (1470)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$1.66

Record

39%

3708-5917 (9625)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.58

Record

17%

92-443 (535)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.18

Record

54%

2315-2002 (4317)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.