Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $205 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$204.72

Combined PnL

-$3.8

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$204.55

Total Shares206

Combined PnL-$1.77

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.17

Total Shares24

Combined PnL-$2.03

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$159.78	$158.88	-$0.9	99% 1301-18 (1319)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$25.86	$17.89	-$0.78	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$16.33	$16.27	-$0.07	63% 741-442 (1183)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.08	$5.06	-$0.02	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.06	$5.04	-$0.02	58% 726-520 (1246)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$1.38	$1.4	+$0.02	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.36	$0.11	-$1.26	39% 3649-5778 (9427)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.64	$0.05	-$0.59	17% 88-433 (521)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.19	$0.01	-$0.18	55% 2291-1902 (4193)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$159.78

Value

$158.88

PnL

-$0.9

Record

99%

1301-18 (1319)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$25.86

Value

$17.89

PnL

-$0.78

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$16.33

Value

$16.27

PnL

-$0.07

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$1.26

Record

39%

3649-5778 (9427)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.59

Record

17%

88-433 (521)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.18

Record

55%

2291-1902 (4193)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.