Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on November 13?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 66¢ · $242 held · ends Nov 13

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$241.76

Combined PnL

$60.44

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 65.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$231.61

Total Shares345

Combined PnL+$52.93

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.15

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$7.51

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 64.8¢	$285.15	$158.19	+$51.91	59% 1169-826 (1995)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 64.9¢	$28.73	$29.24	+$0.51	37% 457-784 (1241)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 63.5¢	$18.37	$19.07	+$0.7	54% 994-856 (1850)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 66¢	$9.33	$9.26	-$0.07	48% 554-604 (1158)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$7	+$5.18	40% 3295-4922 (8217)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 66¢	$6.01	$5.96	-$0.05	48% 597-652 (1249)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 66¢	$5.96	$5.91	-$0.05	49% 538-569 (1107)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 66¢	$4	$3.97	-$0.03	46% 575-687 (1262)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$3.15	+$2.33	61% 517-328 (845)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$285.15

Value

$158.19

PnL

+$51.91

Record

59%

1169-826 (1995)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$28.73

Value

$29.24

PnL

+$0.51

Record

37%

457-784 (1241)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$18.37

Value

$19.07

PnL

+$0.7

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.33

Value

$9.26

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

554-604 (1158)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

PnL

+$5.18

Record

40%

3295-4922 (8217)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.01

Value

$5.96

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

597-652 (1249)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.96

Value

$5.91

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

538-569 (1107)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

Value

$3.97

PnL

-$0.03

Record

46%

575-687 (1262)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$2.33

Record

61%

517-328 (845)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.