Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on November 13?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 94¢ · $412 held · ends Nov 13

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$412.08

Combined PnL

$11.33

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 93.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$363.81

Total Shares389

Combined PnL+$9.7

Yes3 traders

Total Value$48.26

Total Shares536

Combined PnL+$1.64

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 90.7¢	$318.51	$328.19	+$9.68	37% 457-784 (1241)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$79.69	$28.43	+$1.84	61% 2171-1370 (3541)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$18.21	$18.03	-$0.18	59% 1169-826 (1995)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 95¢	$13.43	$13.22	-$0.21	61% 524-330 (854)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$13.22	$13.16	-$0.06	46% 575-687 (1262)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92¢	$8.96	$9.25	+$0.29	54% 994-856 (1850)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$1.8	-$0.02	40% 3295-4922 (8217)

241532532432

Invested

$318.51

Value

$328.19

PnL

+$9.68

Record

37%

457-784 (1241)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.69

Value

$28.43

PnL

+$1.84

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.21

Value

$18.03

PnL

-$0.18

Record

59%

1169-826 (1995)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$13.43

Value

$13.22

PnL

-$0.21

Record

61%

524-330 (854)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$13.22

Value

$13.16

PnL

-$0.06

Record

46%

575-687 (1262)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.96

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$0.29

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.02

Record

40%

3295-4922 (8217)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.