Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on November 13?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $38 held · ends Nov 13

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$38.36

Combined PnL

-$47.78

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$31.78

Total Shares32

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes4 traders

Total Value$6.58

Total Shares598

Combined PnL-$47.81

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$11.19	$11.21	+$0.02	46% 579-670 (1249)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$9.06	$9.07	+$0.01	43% 903-1214 (2117)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$8.99	$9	+$0.01	61% 541-351 (892)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$33.55	$4.06	-$29.49	61% 2173-1396 (3569)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 809-8 (817)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$18.21	$2.2	-$16.01	59% 1169-826 (1995)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.22	-$1.6	40% 3344-4978 (8322)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$0.1	-$0.72	60% 534-358 (892)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$11.19

Value

$11.21

PnL

+$0.02

Record

46%

579-670 (1249)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$9.06

Value

$9.07

PnL

+$0.01

Record

43%

903-1214 (2117)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$8.99

Value

PnL

+$0.01

Record

61%

541-351 (892)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.55

Value

$4.06

PnL

-$29.49

Record

61%

2173-1396 (3569)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

809-8 (817)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.21

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$16.01

Record

59%

1169-826 (1995)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$1.6

Record

40%

3344-4978 (8322)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.72

Record

60%

534-358 (892)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.