Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on November 6?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $213 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$212.82
$0.42
99.7¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $74.78 | $74.84 | +$0.06 | 50% 9890-9904 (19794) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.89 | $39.92 | +$0.03 | 53% 23051-20286 (43337) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $37.27 | $37.27 | -$0 | 51% 3741-3595 (7336) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.94 | +$0.03 | 61% 16011-10320 (26331) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.92 | $29.94 | +$0.02 | 46% 10370-12093 (22463) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.23 | $0.51 | +$0.29 | 18% 4421-20724 (25145) |
Invested
$74.78
Value
$74.84
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
9890-9904 (19794)
Invested
$39.89
Value
$39.92
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
23051-20286 (43337)
Invested
$37.27
Value
$37.27
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
3741-3595 (7336)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0.03
Record
61%
16011-10320 (26331)
Invested
$29.92
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0.02
Record
46%
10370-12093 (22463)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.23
Value
$0.51
PnL
+$0.29
Record
18%
4421-20724 (25145)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.