Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on November 6?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $208 held · ends Nov 6

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$208.13

Combined PnL

-$13.28

Smart Money Entry

98.6¢ → 98.7¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$207.43

Total Shares210

Combined PnL+$0.65

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.31

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$13.93

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$74.13	$74.24	+$0.11	61% 16011-10320 (26331)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$68.7	$67.84	+$0.25	53% 23051-20286 (43337)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$59.49	$59.69	+$0.2	47% 8465-9653 (18118)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$5.57	$5.66	+$0.1	58% 20201-14846 (35047)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$14.7	$0.18	-$14.03	49% 8958-9484 (18442)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0.12	+$0.1	18% 4421-20724 (25145)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$74.13

Value

$74.24

PnL

+$0.11

Record

61%

16011-10320 (26331)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$68.7

Value

$67.84

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

23051-20286 (43337)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$59.49

Value

$59.69

PnL

+$0.2

Record

47%

8465-9653 (18118)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.57

Value

$5.66

PnL

+$0.1

Record

58%

20201-14846 (35047)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.7

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$14.03

Record

49%

8958-9484 (18442)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0.1

Record

18%

4421-20724 (25145)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.