Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on November 4?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 87¢ · $454 held · ends Nov 4

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$454.44

Combined PnL

-$25.79

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 86.5¢

+10% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$348.68

Total Shares413

Combined PnL+$14.03

Yes5 traders

Total Value$105.77

Total Shares664

Combined PnL-$39.83

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 78.1¢	$161.51	$167.51	+$19.44	44% 754-963 (1717)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$75.1	$70	-$3.5	16% 427-2305 (2732)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.7¢	$84.25	$49.83	-$32.64	64% 1933-1071 (3004)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.5¢	$53.85	$34.99	+$0.63	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77.6¢	$31.26	$30.58	-$0.68	53% 9606-8430 (18036)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.7¢	$19.42	$22.56	+$3.14	43% 1325-1779 (3104)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.1¢	$29.53	$21.19	-$8.34	58% 2445-1789 (4234)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$12.3	$12.18	-$0.12	56% 606-485 (1091)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 83¢	$11.32	$11.46	+$0.15	40% 980-1494 (2474)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$12.7	$11.33	-$1.38	47% 2044-2320 (4364)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.9¢	$12.58	$9.97	-$2.61	59% 1689-1190 (2879)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$5.41	$5.51	+$0.1	47% 1602-1786 (3388)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 90.7¢	$5.74	$5.13	-$0.61	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$1.59	$2.21	+$0.62	40% 2066-3099 (5165)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$161.51

Value

$167.51

PnL

+$19.44

Record

44%

754-963 (1717)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$75.1

Value

$70

PnL

-$3.5

Record

16%

427-2305 (2732)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.25

Value

$49.83

PnL

-$32.64

Record

64%

1933-1071 (3004)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$53.85

Value

$34.99

PnL

+$0.63

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$31.26

Value

$30.58

PnL

-$0.68

Record

53%

9606-8430 (18036)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.42

Value

$22.56

PnL

+$3.14

Record

43%

1325-1779 (3104)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.53

Value

$21.19

PnL

-$8.34

Record

58%

2445-1789 (4234)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$12.3

Value

$12.18

PnL

-$0.12

Record

56%

606-485 (1091)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$11.32

Value

$11.46

PnL

+$0.15

Record

40%

980-1494 (2474)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$12.7

Value

$11.33

PnL

-$1.38

Record

47%

2044-2320 (4364)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.58

Value

$9.97

PnL

-$2.61

Record

59%

1689-1190 (2879)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.41

Value

$5.51

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

1602-1786 (3388)

suntori<$100

Invested

$5.74

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$0.61

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.59

Value

$2.21

PnL

+$0.62

Record

40%

2066-3099 (5165)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.