Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on November 2?

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 61¢ · $855 held · ends Nov 2

Yes61¢No39¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$854.69

Combined PnL

$40.97

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$515.5

Total Shares859

Combined PnL+$36.7

No2 traders

Total Value$36.33

Total Shares93

Combined PnL+$4.27

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 58.5¢	$428.59	$515.5	+$36.7	50% 673-674 (1347)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 59.1¢	$305.9	$302.86	-$0.26	18% 365-1632 (1997)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.1¢	$179.11	$184.74	+$5.8
└ No leg	Noavg 41¢	$124.17	$118.11	-$6.06
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 35.2¢	$24.15	$27.87	+$3.72	59% 1921-1351 (3272)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 36.5¢	$7.91	$8.46	+$0.55	56% 14224-11027 (25251)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$428.59

Value

$515.5

PnL

+$36.7

Record

50%

673-674 (1347)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$305.9

Value

$302.86

PnL

-$0.26

Record

18%

365-1632 (1997)

Both legs:

Yes$179.1159.1¢+$5.8

No$124.1741¢-$6.06

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$24.15

Value

$27.87

PnL

+$3.72

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$7.91

Value

$8.46

PnL

+$0.55

Record

56%

14224-11027 (25251)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.