Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 30?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 84¢ · $533 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$533.25
-$30.5
89.6¢ → 83.6¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $299.13 | $279.65 | -$19.48 | 59% 1694-1159 (2853) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 90.2¢ | $128.13 | $120 | -$8.13 | 57% 13390-10234 (23624) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 88.1¢ | $135.33 | $114.52 | -$3.52 | 53% 6441-5643 (12084) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $14.3 | $15.21 | +$0.91 | 45% 1847-2279 (4126) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.6¢ | $4.62 | $3.88 | -$0.28 | 56% 345-275 (620) |
Invested
$299.13
Value
$279.65
PnL
-$19.48
Record
59%
1694-1159 (2853)
Invested
$128.13
Value
$120
PnL
-$8.13
Record
57%
13390-10234 (23624)
Invested
$135.33
Value
$114.52
PnL
-$3.52
Record
53%
6441-5643 (12084)
Invested
$14.3
Value
$15.21
PnL
+$0.91
Record
45%
1847-2279 (4126)
Invested
$4.62
Value
$3.88
PnL
-$0.28
Record
56%
345-275 (620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.