Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on November 15?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $83 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$83.22

Combined PnL

-$4.76

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$83.11

Total Shares83

Combined PnL-$0

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.11

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$4.75

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$29.86	$29.94	+$0.08	30% 1151-2701 (3852)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$11.21	$11.19	-$0.02	51% 814-794 (1608)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$10.42	$10.4	-$0.02	50% 875-892 (1767)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.02	$10	-$0.02	47% 849-947 (1796)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$7.96	$7.95	-$0.01	58% 818-587 (1405)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.07	$6.06	-$0.01	59% 824-563 (1387)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.08	$5.07	-$0.01	51% 898-846 (1744)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	98% 1504-23 (1527)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$39.75	$0.06	-$3.62	43% 5158-6923 (12081)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.18	$0.05	-$1.14	38% 3738-6054 (9792)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.86

Value

$29.94

PnL

+$0.08

Record

30%

1151-2701 (3852)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$11.21

Value

$11.19

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

814-794 (1608)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$10.42

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

875-892 (1767)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.02

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

849-947 (1796)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$7.96

Value

$7.95

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

818-587 (1405)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$6.07

Value

$6.06

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

824-563 (1387)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

898-846 (1744)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.75

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.62

Record

43%

5158-6923 (12081)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.14

Record

38%

3738-6054 (9792)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.