Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on November 15?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 98¢ · $332 held · ends Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$331.92

Combined PnL

$2.56

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 98¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$331.66

Total Shares338

Combined PnL+$3.48

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.26

Total Shares13

Combined PnL-$0.92

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95.9¢	$118.74	$105.48	+$1.74	42% 754-1062 (1816)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$77.65	$79.74	+$2.09	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$39.39	$36.56	-$0.37	43% 5158-6923 (12081)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 95¢	$28.5	$29.39	+$0.89	38% 306-500 (806)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$27.18	$27.06	-$0.12	57% 796-604 (1400)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$25.02	$25.06	+$0.04	47% 1192-1364 (2556)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$9.03	$8.98	-$0.05	51% 898-846 (1744)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99¢	$7.04	$7	-$0.04	50% 875-892 (1767)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99¢	$7.89	$5.04	-$0.2	52% 862-787 (1649)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.96	$4.93	-$0.03	47% 849-947 (1796)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$20.43	$2.41	-$0.48	53% 7310-6373 (13683)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.18	$0.26	-$0.92	38% 3738-6054 (9792)

241532532432

Invested

$118.74

Value

$105.48

PnL

+$1.74

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$77.65

Value

$79.74

PnL

+$2.09

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$39.39

Value

$36.56

PnL

-$0.37

Record

43%

5158-6923 (12081)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$28.5

Value

$29.39

PnL

+$0.89

Record

38%

306-500 (806)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$27.18

Value

$27.06

PnL

-$0.12

Record

57%

796-604 (1400)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$25.02

Value

$25.06

PnL

+$0.04

Record

47%

1192-1364 (2556)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$9.03

Value

$8.98

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

898-846 (1744)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$7.04

Value

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

875-892 (1767)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$7.89

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

862-787 (1649)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$4.93

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

849-947 (1796)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$20.43

Value

$2.41

PnL

-$0.48

Record

53%

7310-6373 (13683)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.92

Record

38%

3738-6054 (9792)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.