Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on November 15?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 84¢ · $310 held · ends Nov 15

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$310.3

Combined PnL

$11.45

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 83.5¢

-1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$231.24

Total Shares262

Combined PnL+$6.43

Yes4 traders

Total Value$79.06

Total Shares295

Combined PnL+$5.02

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 85¢	$155.32	$112.14	+$6.75	42% 754-1062 (1816)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 30.9¢	$80.37	$70.18	-$10.19	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 76.6¢	$28.88	$22.35	-$2.17	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 86¢	$17.78	$17.36	-$0.42	51% 814-794 (1608)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 84¢	$16.79	$17.19	+$0.4	71% 917-377 (1294)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 81.1¢	$15.57	$16.52	+$0.95	58% 818-587 (1405)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 83.3¢	$14.39	$15.29	+$0.9	47% 849-947 (1796)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 86¢	$13.06	$13.06	+$0	52% 862-787 (1649)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 90¢	$6.33	$6.22	-$0.11	50% 875-892 (1767)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 90¢	$5.47	$5.38	-$0.09	51% 898-846 (1744)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$3.11	$4.67	+$1.56	43% 5158-6923 (12081)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 87¢	$3.65	$3.6	-$0.04	57% 796-604 (1400)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.18	$3.51	+$2.33	38% 3738-6054 (9792)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 65¢	$1.86	$2.11	+$0.26	59% 824-563 (1387)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$55.77	$0.7	+$11.32	35% 3858-7087 (10945)

241532532432

Invested

$155.32

Value

$112.14

PnL

+$6.75

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.37

Value

$70.18

PnL

-$10.19

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.88

Value

$22.35

PnL

-$2.17

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$17.78

Value

$17.36

PnL

-$0.42

Record

51%

814-794 (1608)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$16.79

Value

$17.19

PnL

+$0.4

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$15.57

Value

$16.52

PnL

+$0.95

Record

58%

818-587 (1405)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$14.39

Value

$15.29

PnL

+$0.9

Record

47%

849-947 (1796)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$13.06

Value

$13.06

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

862-787 (1649)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.33

Value

$6.22

PnL

-$0.11

Record

50%

875-892 (1767)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.47

Value

$5.38

PnL

-$0.09

Record

51%

898-846 (1744)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.11

Value

$4.67

PnL

+$1.56

Record

43%

5158-6923 (12081)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.04

Record

57%

796-604 (1400)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$3.51

PnL

+$2.33

Record

38%

3738-6054 (9792)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

$2.11

PnL

+$0.26

Record

59%

824-563 (1387)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.77

Value

$0.7

PnL

+$11.32

Record

35%

3858-7087 (10945)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.