Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on November 15?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $106 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$106.4

Combined PnL

-$4.16

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 99.6¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$105.95

Total Shares107

Combined PnL+$0.21

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.45

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$4.37

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$29.79	$29.82	+$0.03	36% 268-480 (748)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$19.82	$19.88	+$0.06	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$16.99	$16.95	-$0.04	60% 796-535 (1331)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$16.53	$16.71	+$0.18	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.97	$9.96	-$0.02	28% 3241-8219 (11460)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.12	$5.12	+$0	58% 794-568 (1362)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5.02	$5	-$0.02	49% 849-871 (1720)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$2.5	$2.52	+$0.02	99% 1449-21 (1470)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$39.71	$0.26	-$3.38	43% 5134-6831 (11965)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.18	$0.2	-$0.99	39% 3708-5917 (9625)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.79

Value

$29.82

PnL

+$0.03

Record

36%

268-480 (748)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.82

Value

$19.88

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$16.99

Value

$16.95

PnL

-$0.04

Record

60%

796-535 (1331)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.53

Value

$16.71

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.96

PnL

-$0.02

Record

28%

3241-8219 (11460)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

794-568 (1362)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

849-871 (1720)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$0.02

Record

99%

1449-21 (1470)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.71

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$3.38

Record

43%

5134-6831 (11965)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.99

Record

39%

3708-5917 (9625)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.