Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on November 10?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $739 held
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$738.57
-$11.6
96.2¢ → 97.9¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $629.11 | $616.86 | -$10.57 | 25% 70-207 (277) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $48.18 | $48.32 | +$0.14 | 49% 99-103 (202) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $41.53 | $40.7 | -$0.83 | 56% 139-108 (247) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $33.03 | $32.69 | -$0.34 | 36% 120-217 (337) |
Invested
$629.11
Value
$616.86
PnL
-$10.57
Record
25%
70-207 (277)
Invested
$48.18
Value
$48.32
PnL
+$0.14
Record
49%
99-103 (202)
Invested
$41.53
Value
$40.7
PnL
-$0.83
Record
56%
139-108 (247)
Invested
$33.03
Value
$32.69
PnL
-$0.34
Record
36%
120-217 (337)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.