Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on November 7?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$1.1
-$29.64
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $14.54 | $0.26 | -$14.28 | 37% 903-1557 (2460) |
LU luciebotCTR | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $107.16 | $0.05 | -$9.55 | 28% 3038-7860 (10898) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $5.59 | $0.05 | -$5.54 | 17% 4528-22232 (26760) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.02 | $0 | -$0.27 | 41% 997-1416 (2413) |
Invested
$14.54
Value
$0.26
PnL
-$14.28
Record
37%
903-1557 (2460)
Invested
$107.16
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$9.55
Record
28%
3038-7860 (10898)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$5.59
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$5.54
Record
17%
4528-22232 (26760)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.27
Record
41%
997-1416 (2413)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.