Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on November 9?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 99¢ · $310 held · ends Nov 9

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$309.57

Combined PnL

-$0.98

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 98.7¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$308.95

Total Shares313

Combined PnL-$1.11

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.63

Total Shares53

Combined PnL+$0.14

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.1¢	$146.6	$146.26	-$0.34	43% 18507-24169 (42676)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$41.44	$41.25	-$0.19	43% 5541-7239 (12780)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$38.23	$37.89	-$0.35	46% 6185-7387 (13572)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99¢	$22.23	$22.13	-$0.09	46% 6881-8137 (15018)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$18.9	$18.74	-$0.16	46% 6626-7759 (14385)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99¢	$15.02	$14.88	-$0.14	30% 2853-6533 (9386)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$13.9	$13.95	+$0.06	50% 65492-65807 (131299)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$12.76	$12.85	+$0.09	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 99¢	$0.98	$0.98	-$0	30% 2917-6663 (9580)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.24	$0.57	+$0.33	15% 4979-29161 (34140)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$21.14	$0.06	-$0.19	22% 3337-11823 (15160)

Lucerys

Invested

$146.6

Value

$146.26

PnL

-$0.34

Record

43%

18507-24169 (42676)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$41.44

Value

$41.25

PnL

-$0.19

Record

43%

5541-7239 (12780)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$38.23

Value

$37.89

PnL

-$0.35

Record

46%

6185-7387 (13572)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$22.23

Value

$22.13

PnL

-$0.09

Record

46%

6881-8137 (15018)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$18.9

Value

$18.74

PnL

-$0.16

Record

46%

6626-7759 (14385)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$15.02

Value

$14.88

PnL

-$0.14

Record

30%

2853-6533 (9386)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$13.9

Value

$13.95

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

65492-65807 (131299)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$12.76

Value

$12.85

PnL

+$0.09

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

123987456<$100

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0

Record

30%

2917-6663 (9580)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.57

PnL

+$0.33

Record

15%

4979-29161 (34140)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.14

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.19

Record

22%

3337-11823 (15160)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.