Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 5°C on November 8?
Resolved No. 21% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
14
Yes 100%
$0.03
-$0.25
Smart Money Signal
3 of 14 top traders (21%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.25 | 16% 4635-23687 (28322) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | No | $0.03 | $0.03 | +$0 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 34% 33217-64988 (98205) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 18006-22281 (40287) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 43869-46551 (90420) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 44% 2445-3051 (5496) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 60% 18915-12738 (31653) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 35% 1022-1939 (2961) |
GO god83743894<$100 | No | — | — | +$0 | 38% 16029-25855 (41884) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 48% 11465-12267 (23732) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 1206-2165 (3371) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 4656-4095 (8751) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 47% 2105-2397 (4502) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 13% 603-4221 (4824) |
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.25
Record
16%
4635-23687 (28322)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.03
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
33217-64988 (98205)
Lucerys<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
18006-22281 (40287)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
43869-46551 (90420)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
2445-3051 (5496)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
18915-12738 (31653)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
1022-1939 (2961)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
16029-25855 (41884)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
11465-12267 (23732)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
1206-2165 (3371)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
4656-4095 (8751)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2105-2397 (4502)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
13%
603-4221 (4824)