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NoYesYes
balthazarCTR<$100Yes
LucerysCTR<$100YesNoYes
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 4°C on November 8?
Resolved No. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 67%
Total Value
$44.62
Combined PnL
-$3.6
Smart Money Signal
Yes
6 of 8 top traders (75%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$44.62
Total Shares45
Combined PnL+$0.74
Yes6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares45
Combined PnL-$4.34
No — 25%Yes — 75%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $44.58 | $44.62 | +$0.74 | 97% 522-14 (536) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$4.26 | 38% 16029-25855 (41884) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.08 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 34% 33217-64988 (98205) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 18006-22281 (40287) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 43869-46551 (90420) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 35% 1022-1939 (2961) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 13% 603-4221 (4824) |
1D
1DVSBSTD<$100Invested
$44.58
Value
$44.62
PnL
+$0.74
Record
97%
522-14 (536)
GO
god83743894CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$4.26
Record
38%
16029-25855 (41884)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.08
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
33217-64988 (98205)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
18006-22281 (40287)
QW
qwen300.fund<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
43869-46551 (90420)
AN
anothercoinCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
1022-1939 (2961)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
13%
603-4221 (4824)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x29086a4b...f30115
Slug
highest-temperature-in-seoul-on-november-8-2026-4c