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YesYesNo
balthazarCTR<$100Yes
LucerysCTR<$100YesNo
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 2°C or below on November 8?
Resolved No. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$4.83
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 7 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares45
Combined PnL-$4.83
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 71%No — 29%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$4.3 | 38% 16029-25855 (41884) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.54 | 35% 1022-1939 (2961) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | No | $0 | $0 | +$0 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 34% 33217-64988 (98205) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 18006-22281 (40287) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 43869-46551 (90420) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 13% 603-4221 (4824) |
GO
god83743894CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$4.3
Record
38%
16029-25855 (41884)
AN
anothercoinCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.54
Record
35%
1022-1939 (2961)
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
$0
Value
$0
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
33217-64988 (98205)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
18006-22281 (40287)
QW
qwen300.fund<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
43869-46551 (90420)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
13%
603-4221 (4824)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xe52ad7b4...8a1b7e
Slug
highest-temperature-in-seoul-on-november-8-2026-2corbelow